The Belgians and Italians are going to ride at warp speed to try and shake the super rapid boys. Cav’s problem will be if he’s dropped before Farrar or Goss on the hills and so can’t wheel suck his way back into touch with the lead. My money’s on Alby Davis – he’s geared his whole year towards this race, and is hitting form at the right time. I think it’s too long over the top for Cadel to stay away if he hits them on the climb.

Two outside shots for me are Stuie O’Grady and Julian Dean. The warhorses are in good nick apparently, and would both feature very highly if in a small selection late. It’s going to be a great race regardless! Hopefully the Victorian people aren’t all too hungover to get on board and watch.

Nof Landrien :

The secret to liking Evans is to turn the volume off immediately you see him getting off his bike and before his mouth starts to move.

Word. He’s done the stripes proud on the bike, and been a whinging bitch much of the time off it. That’s Cuddles tho. And I enjoyed the fisticuffs at the Giro… http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/video/20052010/58/angry-evans-hits.html

Cavendish is not in a position to even think about controlling the race and must simply ride as per other teams. The three British riders will be sitting tight and following wheels, they are all very experienced PROs and can last the distance. Millar will be slated for any break with the main hitters in it that goes in the last couple of laps. Hunt is there to watch out for Cav and to lead him out. Cav might even have to ensure he gets his own bottles and food. I wouldn’t rule him out, but he’ll need luck and other teams incompetence (hence why I wouldn’t rule him out).

The secret to liking Evans is to turn the volume off immediately you see him getting off his bike and before his mouth starts to move. He has had a great year, shown massive amounts of V (that win in the Giro was truly a magnificent ride). If you look at his career through the filter of this year I think you have to doff your hat to the guy. He’s a pretty accomplished bike racer.

and didn’t go overboard on the stripes on his bike and kit

whew…I thought you were going to show a photo of Cipo as an example of rainbow excess.

That’s what I’d thought, too. We forget, though, that Cipo is the one who invented matching your shit…when he did it, it was novel and cool. When other’s copied him, it was tacky.

@Cyclops
I’m with you, I struggle the same way with Cadel. But good on him – his Giro was mudtacular. The Strada will go down as one of the best stages of any race ever. Epic.

@Jarvis
Great analysis, mate. Faboo is quickly being a dominant rider which means I might have to reconsider loving him so damn much, but I’d certainly be stoked if he took the bands. I think my money’s on Gilbert. VSP posting shortly – get your picks ready.

@Souleur
He had a great spring and aside from a broken elbow, a good Tour…that’s better than most. Although, Boonen had a great year in the bands as well.

It starts at 10:00 on Sunday Aussie time, but there is daylight savings kicking in.

Does that mean it’ll be on at 17:00 Saturday for me? Or is my math way off…

I don’t see the finish as being steep enough to undo Cav, he would have to lose the race if he is in the mix at the end.

Millar stated that the race would explode, but the under-23 didn’t.

Gilbert, will attack the last time up the big hill, however it will have to be a huge attack not to be brought back on the long straights to the finish. Cancellara could be the key and if he got away along with Gilbert would be one of the few I’d give a chance of staying away.

and didn’t go overboard on the stripes on his bike and kit

whew…I thought you were going to show a photo of Cipo as an example of rainbow excess.