I had some great fun on homemade studded MTB tires  20 years ago.  Test riding on a very hard frozen lake indicated the need for wider stud placement when any kind of lean resulted in rubber on ice and instant wipe out.  The drag is real, but you forgot to mention the weight of all those screws and the duct tape layer to protect your tube…

Velominati › Guest Article: Me, My Bike, and Irene

@The Flight Sergeant, @King Clydesdale
Amazingly interesting posts both. What amazes me about meteorology is that its based on finite elements rather than area elements. Area elements are essentially the same as vector graphics; mathematically determined elements rather than scale-determined and have been used for ages as the competing approach in ground water modeling. Since air is a fluid (albeit a less viscous one), the principles should apply with the necessary adjustment and, assuming you have the data points to support it, should scale from local to global forecasting without a loss of accuracy. Building the model is a ton of work, though.
And before I sound like (a) brilliant or (b) a total jackass – my padre established this model for groundwater, and is now interested in using the same model for weather forecasting, although at an amateur level.

Sounds like a interesting project! The fact that the atmosphere a fluid was the bases of some of the first numerical weather models, appropriately called “shallow water models”. The basic equations for such can be found here: http://cims.nyu.edu/~gerber/pages/climod/GFDL_shallow_water_eqns.pdf

My senior research was modeling based. I ran simulations of a supercell over complex terrain using a microphysics cloud model in an attempt to explain a localized tornado maximum in New York State. Really fun stuff since we optimized it to run on a tower server, utilizing 16 processing cores. I’m quite proud what I accomplished, despite the fact the results didn’t answer the initial question. But sometimes thats how research works…

My secret weapon for when sheet ice makes the road bike a bone crunching impossibility.

@sgt

@Steampunk
Attaboy Steamy! I’m expecting an updated km total (“km-age”?) on Sunday for your Rwanda Project.

Again: thanks. Hoping to get out again tomorrow. I haven’t so much as a sniffle all year, and came down with sore throat, chest infection, and aches last week, which has kept me off the bike for ten days. Had hoped to rack up a bit more this week to no avail.

PS weather here will be 20″²s and sunny all weekend; Witte-Kit weather!

This doesn’t help. Not one little bit. (Enjoy, though!)

PS weather here will be 20’s and sunny all weekend; Witte-Kit weather!

@frank
Before I sound like (a) a sycophant or (b) a total geek””this modeling stuff sounds fantastic (have been working on the history of modeling recently). You’ve just become my second favorite Strack.

And before I sound like (a) brilliant or (b) a total jackass – my padre established this model for groundwater, and is now interested in using the same model for weather forecasting, although at an amateur level.

@Ron
This is Seattle. The conversation in the cars was “Look at these fucking twats, getting in our way. I bet they raise their own chickens! I’m gonna pull up and remind this guy to recycle and eat local!…”

I can only imagine the conversation in the car.

“Look at these fucking twats. Riding their bikes in the rain. And getting in our fucking way. Assholes! I’m gonna give that guy a piece of my mind…”
As they angrily pull around to pass. “Honey, I wouldn’t say anything. That guy is pretty fucking tall. And, he is riding in the rain. He must be insane! Just drive by.”

Welcome!

Ah yes, TTAA and TTBB reports. Learned to decode them in Junior year, but don’t deal with them much seeing as I don’t deal with aviation forecasting, and when we want a forecast similar to a taf, we prefer to make them ourselves, seeing as they are human produced. As a private meteorologist we aim to beat the feds, not copy them. Metars on the other hand we use all the time.

There are some new forecasting tools in the works that are incorporating advanced boundary layer physics to create some awesome point forecasts. These will be very valuable to people who partake in recreational activities. Its just a matter of R&D and getting computing power to keep up.

Just new to The Rules, your best bet for some accurate met forecast information is to use the airfield forecast and actual data for a selection of the nearest airfields to your location and location of your ride. You can get apps for a variety of smart devices such as ‘aeroweather’ or can just search for your local airfields info, ie. ‘XXXXXXX taf’

The TAF is the short term forecast and is usually very accurate especially with regards to the wind direction and velocity, the METAR is the current measured weather at the airfield location and will have a time field indicating when the data was collected.

The Flight Sergeant

@frankAre you motor pacing your VMH?

No, they’re both motor-pacing the vehicles behind

Anytime you want some information on the history of forecasting let me know and I’ll fill you in on all that I know.

I’m sure if you asked every cyclist here there perfect riding conditions, I’m sure you’d get a wide range of answers. For me, around 12-13 C is a sweet spot.

Weather has of course played an important role in professional cycling. An interesting tidbit about the record hour is that many attempts at the record took place in Mexico City due to the thinner air. For some light scientific reading about the hour record and altitude, enjoy: http://www.wolfgang-menn.de/altitude.htm

“:I went home, checked more weather stuff (I never really stop working), changed, and went for a ride.”
So I gotta know. Which weather website do you use?

I have 24 websites bookmarked at home in my forecasting folder. While I will use my companies website in a pinch, I prefer to do my own forecasts.

@Steampunk

Nice piece, KC! As Marko pointed out earlier, weather is a key feature of riding. I’m wondering, though, whether someone in the biz interprets the forecast””and what it means for riding””more carefully than the rest of us. I’ll have a quick look at precipitation and maybe wind before going out. What criteria is on your list to check and anticipate?

To be honest, the biggest turnoff for a bike ride (besides the lethal kinds), is humidity. Dry heat is beautiful, just drink plenty of water and let the wind do the cooling. But the sticky heat is the worst for me.

I also make sure to check out the pressure gradient and due a look at the wind for the day. I attempt to plan ahead to where I finish my ride on a tailwind sometimes, if I’m giving it that much thought.

But as always I will continue to make forecasts for all the cogals with as many details as possible. It’s my little professional contribution.

Here’s the VMH rockin’ some serious Rule #9 and Rule #10 action in Seattle today. Great day for a ride: 3 or 4 degrees, steady rain, and hills.

A-MERCKX! Rockin’ the leg warmers!

I will now go back to the couch with great shame…

I usually check the radar before going out but that’s primarily to check I’ve got appropriate kit.

Radar: Radios Around Dummies Aren’t Reliable.

I used to be a parapente pilot. Does that count?Come to think of it, the conditions and terrain that I was riding in today would have been perfect for a day of soaring.To wit;

Ah, Summer in the Southern Hemisphere…

Flat bottom cu all streeting up. But hey…my bike never needs a towplane.

Me and Dr Grog rode the 3 Peaks this year. We got soaked in the first 30k. I remember the first drips reaching inside the shoes and thinking “this is going to be a looong day”. We got soaked again at about 210k but the wind was kind. Thank Merckx.

Yeah, my least favorite thing about riding around without fenders in the rain is the roostertail that eventually soaks the pad in your bibs… I can handle being wet, but when sitting on a wet chamois is just plain annoying and sort of takes the “hey I’m out here in shite weather” fun out of the ride, at least for me.

I have to admit to throwing on a rear raceblade when I am certain the skies are going to dump more than just a “shower” (which I won’t bother with the fenders), because a wet rear-end isn’t very fun.

What a timely piece – I woke up today to cool weather (mid 40s*F) and pouring rain. Probably the first truly bad weather we’ve had here this winter. Hmm, today is a soccer day for me, but I might have to fit in a short ride just to Rule 9 it for a bit!

Today is a day that makes me very happy that I have a fully fendered bike. I don’t like how they look, I don’t like how they get caught on things, make putting it in my workstand hard, make putting it on the car rack hard, and that you can’t flip it up to wheel it through narrow spaces like hallways, but darn, full fenders almost make it not a Rule 9 day when they keep you so wonderfully dry and grime free.

With the right clothes, riding in the rain can be awesome, as many of you clearly realize. Now I just need to save up for that nice rain cape someone linked to a few weeks back.

Over here in blighty the weather almost mandates Rule #9 compliance.

I’m off out now to re-assert the theory!

On Rule #9: I willingly ride through cold weather. Precipitation on the other hand does not interest me. I will only ride in the rain if fate dictates that it happens. Where rain is concerned I will only be a badass when Mother Nature forces my hand.

The day I picked up my new Bike Number One it was one of those days. There were afternoon thunderstorms forecast but I decided to temp fate and lit out. Twenty miles out, dark clouds rolled in as I turned onto the road that returned me home.

Fortunata smiled and gave me a tailwind.

As I made the final turn to the 6 mile push to the finish the skies dumped. Thunder crashed, the wind was howling and the rain was coming down in sheets. I laughed maniacally and felt like the Bishop in Caddyshack.

Indeed, and it is maybe from my past experience of windsurfing in the snow, where you stuck your hands in the sea to fend off frostbite and regain some limited sensation (big winds = big windchill; gloves = forearm cramp/ no grip), means that that wearing neoprene and being wet, means you only notice the rain until you are wet, then you forget it is there

Stick the right gear on, don’t try to stay dry, you can’t

Keep the layers plentiful but snug, to stop water gathering and sagging, overshoes and a good hat under your helmo and you will be as toasty as you are on a warm day, only you are wet

Nothing better than getting looked at by passers-by who are thinking, “is he fucking mad?”

– yes and no – “mad, maybe, definitely BAD”, you think to yourself

Maybe the next time it is 0C and sleeting, I’ll do some hill reps in my E-Bomb 2/3mm summer wetsuit….probably overheat

Ah, Summer in the Southern Hemisphere…

@Anjin-san
I’m not a pilot but I’m working on getting my A&P. Good stuff.

One of the reasons I like riding in bad weather is that convection motivates me to go harder. When I slow or stop I cool down quickly so I’d just as soon lay into the pedals one more to stay warm.

Great article K.C. Thanks for the contribution.

this is spot on for me. I felt the same way. i used to think i couldn’t ride when the weather was bad, now i look forward to it, in a sick sort of way. great article.

For the rest I go with the rule of thumb that says if it is warm like a bathtub go out for a splish-splash. So at least once a summer (hopefully in Irene like drama weather) if the mercury is above 70’ish I head out for the fun of it and love it.

@Unica
You summed up the old feeling, with the exception of racing in the city (really dirty). Give me a crit in the rain, wait patiently while half the field slides out in the first half and then have a great race with the rest of the guy’s who knew their shit – whooeee – no water bottle cause your drinking off the roostertail in front, if you fall going for a prime, a fifty meter slide and no road rash – get right back up and catch the field as they pass, the thrill of blowing through 5 inches of puddle at 50kph!
Thanks for the memories.

@Unica
Agree – as odd as it may sound – in sunny Australia there is plenty of opportunity to race in tha rain because we run our road racing season in the winter and the track/crit season in summer. Never thought to ask why but I think it is because track racing has been a predominantly outdoor sport and summer is better for spectators.

My theory on racing in rain (as a dud amateur) – if u r a little more prepared to risk crashing by following wheels closely and/or rely on your handling skills – you can save a lot more energy.

Great article Clydesdale. Your comparison to brokers made me laugh. But as someone who does advise people on money- I can say my job would be a lot easier if I had something like your big satellite maps tellingly what the market “should” do tomorrow. So there!

I don’t know what it’s like to race in the rain

it’s amazing fun and utter shit all at the same time. As long as you don’t think about the Belgian toothpaste, you’re half way there!

I won races that I shouldnt have done just because it was raining. I beat people that if it were dry I would be lucky to hold their wheel, but as soon as they saw the rain their heads went down (literally).

And remember, there’s no such thing as bad weather…

So I gotta know. Which weather website do you use?