The glow from the Giro is still visible, everything is still pink but I’m jumping ahead of all the Wilcocksons of the world with a bold Tour de France prognostication. And to do this I’ve borrowed Frank’s carbon ball, oft used for somewhat accurate predictions of future cycling events. This article was written weeks ago, at the start of the Giro but the frenzy of creative writing out of the front office has kept this buried. It’s now or never.
What can you say about Twiggo? I can say he is heading towards a win in the Tour de France this year.
I have raised issues with a rubbish haircut and cycling knee socks but these are superficial stylistic issues. Who am I to do that? I’m shiet. We need as many free thinkers as possible in cycling and if Bradley or Vaughters have different sideburns, excellent. Conformity is over-rated. Forget the socks, have you noticed his profile on the bike. He has the flattest back in the peloton and not by chance. I bet he and Sky are ticking every stinking little box to get this done.
He won Paris-Nice riding like a true professional, taking up Moser’s method of cooling down after each climbing stage by riding a stationary bike. He won Tour of Romandie like a seasoned veteran and won a field sprint for a stage win! He is winning these on his time trailing strength but not losing them by always riding at the front and climbing well enough. Yes, the Tour is different, the climbs are harder but he is a better climber than the Schlecks are time trialists. He did podium in last year’s Vuelta. He is experienced enough to not chase down every acceleration on a stiff climb, he just tempos it out, smoothing out the highs and lows. Bradley is one smart rider.
How does he stack up against Cadel? That is the question better informed people than myself would hope to answer correctly. Cadel’s mojo has been tainted so far this year and the Tour is still far away but mojo is mojo and his is bad. If Basso does not make the top five in the Giro, my mojo indicator is working and I’ll stand by it. Sorry Australia, you had a good (but short) run. English types, enjoy these years, they won’t last. They never do. And you from Luxembourg, we will talk in private.
The internal Sky problem of Cav versus Twiggo is solved -the Olympic road race is not far from the end of the Tour and Cav is the home field contender for Olympic gold. He will bail early, Sky will put their eggs in a basket made of Twiggs. How can I say these things with any authority? I can’t, I have none, look at my VSP points. But come the end of the Giro and Basso is smoking like a hippie’s motorbike, (which is a bad thing, not a good thing) then my mojo meter is obviously working and who has the big brain then?
Postscript: Basso did finish in the top five of the Giro, barely, so my mojo indicator is not completely tuned in. It could have something to do with the solar maximum. Twiggo has reported in from his secret base in the Atlantic that he has climbed to the moon and back, daily, so he is still ticking boxes. I’m still feeling good about all this.
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Hmmm, I'd say I agree. It would be a great win and Twiggo can do it.
But, I would venture a guess that the colonials will still give an appropriately fine showing. Mojo aside, Cadel will defend well. And there is that Canadian kid. While things are up for debate in the G-B camp, he just won a little race in Italy, so he may provide some competition. And Basso will come to play too!
Coincidentally, the Bike Snob has a few comments on Wiggo as well today.
http://bikesnobnyc.blogspot.com/2012/05/share-me-river-there-is-such-thing-as.html
Wiggo may be capable, but Sky will let him down.
Brailsford has earned his stripes in a world where mostly you just have to be the fittest and fastest. I still don't think they have got to grips with road racing, especially over a grand tour.
I think Wiggo will take Le Tour, barring any crash or like incident removing him from the race. Due to the route and his current form he'll never have a better chance to win it and I think he knows its now or never. His socks and haircut are still shit though.
Nice write up. Cannot wait for June 30th! Can possibly see Twiggo on the podium, but the win? Who knows, I definitely do not (reference my VSP as well).
@Dan_R
Is Basso riding the tdf? I think Nibbles has the lead there for the Italians. Also, is Ryder going to the tour? Cannot imagine he will be a contender if he does show up after gassing himself so much in the Giro.
@VeloVita
That was my thinking too, he may never have such a beneficial route as a strong TT man. And yes, I agree, socks and hair are shit, I was just being generous.
@ChrisO
Interesting thought. Sky has proved to miss some tactical nuance, like the recent Giro, and having the world's best sprinter won't help. They better have Sean Yates at the wheel for this cluster faaaack then. He will set things right, or not.
@Dan_R
It's been too quiet on the Cadel front. Too quiet. I haven't heard from him since...so long I can't remember.
I would think Ryder will be a bit shagged come TdF and be riding for VDV if he rides it at all. He might skip it and prep for Canadian Gold in London. Basso? Hmmm, we shall see.
@The Oracle
Oh good, Bike Snob thinks Wiggins has no chance. I'll be happy to see him wrong come July. Nice Terry bike in that ad though.
@Buck Rogers
Ryder is currently listed as starting the Tour. (cyclingfans.com)
@scaler911
Belay my last its: http://www.cyclingfever.com/editie.html?detp=view&_ap=startlijst&editie_idd=MjI5MTU=
Been thinking hard about this (well hard by my somewhat lax standards).
I'm shallow but sidies and over long socks speak of some preparation issue somewhere. I think Wiggo will make the podium if he stays upright but I just don't think he has the panache to win.
More contemplation before I can tell you who will win but this might be a year for someone new to burst on the scene. Think about it - Sky are the target - everyone will attack them all the time as they're the team to beat. They might be able to fend off one or two teams using their obvious strength but half the field ganging up on them?
So what I think will happen (and this is May so I can still change my mind) is that Sky will collectively blow up. Cavendouche will go first as he'll have a disappointing start, realise he hasn't got a hope and jack it in early to do what he should have done in the first place - focus on the Olympics.
Then under the weight of the attacks Sky will lose coherence and another team will keep it together and be the one to beat to Paris. In these circumstances a non-team leading rider that has gone under our collective radars will take the chance to put a couple of good days together and be in with a shout of being on the top step at the end.
I reserve the right to be entirely predictable with my VSP picks however as some of the favourites will be there or thereabouts and I'll get a point or two.
I've got everything crossed for Wiggo!
One thing's for sure, he'll never have a better chance of winning the big one. If he stay's upright and healthy i really can see him doing something quite special.
Leading Cav to Olympic Gold a week later would just about finish things off!